| time on live journal drawing to close |
[May. 15th, 2009|09:54 am] |
One thing Facebook has made me realize is how many 'periods' I've had in my life. I've gathered up friends from many of them.
The time there 97-2000 that I was active with seagoth is one period. Even though in many ways it was one of the darker parts of my life, I enjoyed knowing you all. The camraderie was real. You have all been friends, and some of you very very good friends. When I see you all associating together now, I sometimes have a feeling of envy and also, more odd, a strange, distant feeling of guilt. Many of you have been intimately dealing with each other for a long time,- much longer than you dealt with me,- and I'm happy that you share what looks from this distance like a kind of family bond.
Very little of what I communicate comes through here. Often it is throw away stuff like rambling about the economy that actually occupies very little of my time and thoughts. So that this journal often seems like a distortion to me, and I've long since stopped being comfortable with it. I don't believe I was phony in those years - not at all - but when I look back they seem so strangely isolated from the run of my life. While I was having good times with y'all, I was losing the confidence of my children and breaking hearts that no one saw. Much of that time I was profoundly miserable.
Anyway, I want to in the coming few weeks write some personal things to a couple folks, then I'll stop posting here entirely. I'm on facebook.
Gray - every time I see a picture of you in the mountains, you look happy to me. I say to myself, there's the man. ~ |
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| housing lost for generation? |
[May. 6th, 2009|06:36 pm] |
"Don’t be blinded by the glint of optimism in headlines about rising consumer confidence and slowing price declines. Demographic and market realities tell a more sobering story."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aiiT.sNeq2YQ
"For most homeowners, wealth building and retention may depend more on a diversified, inflation-indexed bond portfolio than on real estate. This new reality, though, may be lost on those still trying to price their homes at 2006 levels."
What he really doesn't tell is this: Not only are there fewer of us,- genx as opposed to baby boomers, - we aren't having many children. As long as this trend continues, the demand for "single family homes" will continue to fade beyond this generation. Neither of my older children think that having children is an essential part of their life. They are probably life long urbanites, who will be able to do with, and even prefer, smaller quarters in the city. He mentions a 40 year peak in consumer spending, now past. But the problem may go beyond a single generation, as, in the long run, there are simply fewer and fewer spenders around to spend.
The history fascinates me. We could conceivably see a return of local, semi-self-sufficient economies. I think it is impossible to predict. But I do not beleive that history can be viewed as entirely "cyclical" ~ |
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| reverse dustbowl |
[May. 6th, 2009|01:16 pm] |
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a8X3k8FhImlc&refer=home
In the heart of Central Valley, half of the 30 communities in Fresno County had unemployment rates above 20 percent in March, when the state rate was 11.5 percent.
California’s agricultural output ranks highest among U.S. states. Now some Central Valley residents are going hungry. “People don’t have enough to eat, and there are no jobs,” said Phyllis Baltierra, 74, the community services coordinator in Firebaugh, where unemployment is 28 percent. More than 1,000 people showed up for a food giveaway in March, compared with 200 in July or August, she said. “We’re down to bottom here,” Baltierra said. “People are moving in with each other because they can’t afford to live by themselves.” Mayor Robert Silva is helping organize food drives in nearby Mendota, where 85 percent of jobs are related to agriculture and unemployment exceeds 40 percent. “My community is suffering,” Silva said. “There are a lot of tragedies going on here.”
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| Doom still on ;) |
[May. 5th, 2009|08:47 am] |
"“The economy has continued to contract, though the pace of contraction appears to be somewhat slower,” the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee said in a statement last week in which it signaled that -- yup, you guessed it -- the emergence of all those “green shots” meant it didn’t have to do much more to stimulate the economy. So, to get this straight, the economy is still falling off a cliff, only not falling quite so fast as it was a few months ago. It is, however, still getting smaller, which means everyone is getting poorer. At the risk of spoiling everyone’s fun, there is a big difference between that and the economy actually starting to recover."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a68fKnmA8S6k&refer=home
Eventually the Stock Market follows reality. In reality, job losses continue to mount and the economy continues to shrink. Most of the "good news" that has caused an apparently oversold market to rebound has been smoke and mirrors. You can only smoke and mirrors for so long, though, as people continue to have less and less money to spend.
I'm not saying that the government throwing trillions of dollars at this thing isn't going to work. Injecting the amount of money into an economy as we have seen in the last several months will absolutely have a great effect on getting spending going. That doesn't mean it has stopped the economy from shrinking yet, however. What that injection of money does in the middle to long term is an entirely different matter. But let's not let that stop us from throwing a party now. After all, the economy is collapsing at a slower pace than it was previously. ~ |
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| :) |
[May. 2nd, 2009|08:44 pm] |
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| Luongo |
[Apr. 22nd, 2009|08:58 am] |
Goal allowed: 2
Saves: 47
holy moly, he's pretty good ~ |
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| banks blowing rainbows, part ...whatever |
[Apr. 20th, 2009|09:59 am] |
The guys on the radio show I sometimes listen to coming home from work were all jolly about BofA's reported "profit." Unfortunately, they have no idea what they are talking about.
Goldman analyst today reiterates "sell" rating on Citigroup. Yes, that Citigroup whose recent announcement of profitability began the current bear market surge. Seems that if you take away trading gains made in bonds due to failing competitors and an "accounting benefit for companies in distress" they actually lost 38 cents a share.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVD_g1ncb2.k&refer=home
"Citigroup Credit Losses Rising Rapidly"
Here's the doozy:
"The fixed-income bonanza, along with wider net interest margins and gains from accounting changes, masked declines in credit-card and consumer banking revenue, and soaring costs to cover bad loans at its credit card unit. "
So much for banks blowing sunshine. We're nearing the end of False Dawn #1.
I wonder if someone can explain to me why a company in distress gets a special accounting break that allows it to report a profit? ~
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| where we are |
[Apr. 15th, 2009|03:33 am] |
it isn't home, fer sure, but it is lovely and I'm going to stop complaining about it.
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| tonight's play list |
[Apr. 15th, 2009|01:08 am] |
I'll Believe in Anything - Wolf Parade
Surf City Eastern Bloc - Arcade Fire
Let it Ride - Ryan Adams
Magick - Ryan Adams and the Cardinals
Vengeance is Sleeping - Neko Case
Spirit Road - Neal Young
Black Cowboys - Bruce Springsteen
Magic - Bruce Springsteen
Two Angels - the Jayhawks
La Pistola y El Corazon - Los Lobos
Andar Conmigo - Julieta Venegas
~ |
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| banks blowing sunshine up yer ... again |
[Apr. 14th, 2009|09:30 am] |
I didn't link anything talking about Wells' tricks. But will link one for Goldman Sachs - the latest financial firm to report a quarterly "profit" - because it seems particularly brazen.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/how-to-puff-up-earnings-goldman-sachs-style
In short, they changed their calender so that they are now reporting a year that ends on Dec 31, instead of Nov 30. This allowed them to ignore the month of December - the month in which they did their charge offs for this quarter. Again, they would be making money if they weren't losing money. Where did the profit come from? Well, they were on the receiving end of AIG payments that were made by ... you and I, as they say.
Russ Horowitz also used a new kind of accounting that ignored "one time" losses. In that case, the point was to show that there was validity to the business model in question. But no one doubts that Goldman Sachs has a valid business model - well, I take that back. No one questions the validity of the business model circa 25 years ago. What they are trying to do is prop up a system with hope - hoping themselves that it can be fixed before the underlying weakness catches up to them. And we'd better hope, too -and I do.
After losing another 600K+ jobs in the last month, we also learn today that retail sales unexpectedly shrank in March. At least one person I read believes this isn't do to less total number of sales, but to deflation.
Lots of things being said and written on all sides. Interesting times. :) ~ |
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| one thing is fatal |
[Apr. 10th, 2009|12:28 am] |
actually, many things are fatal - but the one I want to mention is this:
tying one's ideas to one's ego. Nothing has made my online life more miserable. And nothing has done more to impede my getting outside myself and learning. It's a thing that has always been easy for me to see in other people, but difficult to see in myself. ~ |
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| banks blowing rainbows: "accounting in a wonderful thing" |
[Apr. 9th, 2009|06:04 pm] |
link
I repeat, there is not a lot of substance behind the current optimism. It is instinct and feelings on one hand, and people who believe that all things are cyclical and that post-WWII economic realities are all of history on the other. Look again at the charts showing the decline globally. That money doesn't just reappear because we all feel better. If the stock market recouped all of its 40% loss, that still wouldn't solve the problem of lost capital. (And governments printing money creates problems for the future that we don't forsee.) Save money, don't spend frivolously, plan for contingencies. This thing can get worse - potentially much worse - before it gets better. If it doesn't, then everyone can breathe a sigh of relief - but things must improve drastically before people start acting like its 2004, or 1998, all over again. (Which it never will be.) ~
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| But hey ... |
[Apr. 8th, 2009|09:13 pm] |
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... look on the bright side. Obama is going to have a job for you shoveling asphalt on our increasingly south-of-the-border quality roadways. One must LOL ... to keep from crying!!! ~ |
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| Great Depression II |
[Apr. 8th, 2009|06:57 pm] |
To summarise: the world is currently undergoing an economic shock every bit as big as the Great Depression shock of 1929-30. Looking just at the US leads one to overlook how alarming the current situation is even in comparison with 1929-30.
The good news, of course, is that the policy response is very different. The question now is whether that policy response will work. For the answer, stay tuned for our next column.
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421
I continue very bearish. Not that it matters. :)
I expect the S&P at about 50% of current levels, and the DOW well below 6000. Fear and greed (or, simply, optimism and pessimism) eventually give way to underlying realities. This is basically Paul Krugman's line. You can't restore an economy by restoring hope. Like Ming once told us: some things, like the seasons, are cyclical; other things, like running you car into a tree, are linear.
Don't be fooled because someone is blowing rainbows up your hind quarters. (Like Citigroup saying they are profitable. Read more closely - they are profitable if you take away "one-time" charges. We vets of the tech bubble know this language. It roughly means that we would be making money if we weren't losing money. Why, if the money is now flowing, is Bank of America asking for another 36 billion? All this really says is that the underlying business model is legit. But no one is questioning the fact that banks have a business model that can work in even a marginal economy.)
I say it again: people who are shielded from the effects of this downturn should be preparing both pragmatically and psychologically. Not that everyone is going to lose their jobs, of course. But many will.
In my opinion we are no longer in the early stages of this downturn. We can reasonably look for a bottom - but we aren't at the bottom yet. No freakin way. ~ |
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| Eve Online |
[Apr. 7th, 2009|06:12 pm] |
Best MMO ever
that' all. ~ |
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| How homesick am I? |
[Apr. 3rd, 2009|09:44 pm] |
Listening to the Decembrists Carne Wife reminds me so much of driving out to Wilkeson it brings me to tears. How much would I rather be there than here. There is no measurement. We were so much at home down in Sumner. This valley is lovely - but the people (all of them, not particularly Mormons) here are insular, the winter frigid, the snow relentless. Only the Temple and the congregation I'm a part of are positives unmitigated. Everything else lacks vitality in my heart.
El Senor,
Por favor. No mas nos quedamos en Utah. Necesitamos mas dinero, y mas esperanza. Pero, viviremos en su camino. ~ |
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